“I begin this piece with a mournful heart, grieving for Sumatra, the Malay Peninsula, and scattered corners of Southeast Asia. May everything soon find its way back to peace. This writing is a contemplation born from conversations about Cyclone Senyar, the perigee phase, the western monsoon winds, and the resilience of our small island, Belitong.” – Arry Aditsya Yoga | Researcher in International Law, Ecopolitology, and Anthropology.
The debate on global climate change today no longer revolves around “whether it is happening” but rather “how fast, how extreme, and how prepared human civilization is to face it.” Within the accelerating curve of ocean warming, storm intensification, and shifting patterns of tropical wind circulation, the world finds itself at a fragile scientific turning point. Every degree of temperature increase is not merely a number; it is a variable that alters atmospheric dynamics, rewrites the statistical laws of disaster, and re-tests the climate stability theories that for decades were considered settled.
The phenomenon of Cyclone Senyar, an anomaly that challenges the boundaries of regional climatology around the eastern waters of Sumatra, emerged as a case that humiliated older predictive models. Not only did it form in a region historically unsupportive of tropical cyclone formation, Senyar exhibited characteristics usually found at latitudes far from the equator, an intense convective core, extreme rotational velocity, and moisture signatures misaligned with seasonal norms. It is evidence that the atmosphere is moving toward greater non-linearity, becoming harder to predict, and drifting closer to what climatologists call a regime shift.
Within this context, the global debate on ocean warming, especially in the eastern Indian Ocean, gains new urgency. What was once considered a temporary fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) is now understood as a trigger for long-term instability capable of altering storm structure, from intensity to geographical origin. As SST rises, the geographic boundaries of cyclone genesis shift; what was once impossible now becomes part of new variability. Cyclone Senyar, with its trajectory that captivated scientists worldwide, strengthens the claim that global warming not only intensifies storms but also democratizes the locations where they are born.
In regions such as Tanjungpandan, an island with fragile coastal geomorphology and heavy dependence on weather stability, this phenomenon is a reminder of how deeply connected global and local scales are. The coast of Belitong does not live apart from the architecture of the planet’s climate; every fluctuation in sea level, every shift in monsoonal winds, every anomaly in rainfall, is a direct echo of global atmospheric turbulence. On 29 November 2025, the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) issued a press release regarding potential coastal flooding (rob) triggered by the perigee phase expected on 4 December 2025, listing the coasts of the Bangka Belitung Islands as at risk.
“We ought to be prepared, especially in areas that have already been affected; will Juru Seberang, the Tanjungpendam coast, and Kampong Amau face the same struggles with each rise in sea level and western monsoon?“
When the perigee phase arrives and the Moon is at its closest distance to Earth, the tidal systems along Belitung’s western coast enter their most sensitive period. At this moment, lunar gravitational force intensifies and the sea responds with tides that are higher, faster, and more energetic than usual. From an anthroclimatological perspective, this astronomical phase not only elevates sea levels but also triggers social responses, ecological behaviors, and cultural adaptations within coastal communities whose relationship with the sea spans centuries. In Tanjungpandan, perigee is not merely a cosmic event; it is a phenomenon that shapes spatial structures, rhythms of life, and the resilience of villages built at the water’s edge.
When the perigee phase coincides with the west monsoon, the Java Sea delivers greater energy toward Belitung’s coastline. Higher waves, stronger currents, and the westward push of water mass create oceanographic conditions that lead to extreme tidal flooding. This vertical–horizontal combination creates what climatologists call a compound event, but from the lens of anthroclimatology, it is a convergence of atmospheric, oceanic, and social systems. Flooding on 10–11 November 2025 in Tanjungpendam and the major overflow in Gusong Bugis on 17 December 2024 illustrate how vulnerable Belitung’s coast is when facing the dual force of perigee and monsoon.
In Kampong Amau, located in Parit subdistrict, this phenomenon manifests with the greatest intensity. Amau lies in a geomorphological depression that receives runoff from inland areas while also facing seawater pressure from the coast. When the regional disaster agency (BPBD) recorded around 300 flooded houses on 6 December 2019, it was not merely the result of rainfall or high tide, but a reflection of how the living spaces of the community are shaped by their proximity to the sea. Anthroclimatology views the Amau flood as the outcome of intersecting settlement history, human decisions, and rapidly changing climatic conditions.
The coastal area of Tanjungpandan was built on alluvial plains, long-term products of sedimentation. In anthroclimatological dynamics, coastal land is not simply a physical substrate but a marker of how humans choose living spaces based on economic access, tradition, and cultural closeness to the sea. Belitong communities have a strong maritime orientation, making settlements near docks, river mouths, or beaches culturally logical even if climatologically risky. Tidal floods are not “anomalies” but patterns inherited from ever-changing human–environment interactions.
When the west monsoon brings high rainfall, Tanjungpandan’s drainage faces bidirectional pressure: rising river discharge from upstream and seawater blocking outflow. This backwater phenomenon shows that disasters are not merely about climatic intensity but the result of ecological and social configurations. City canals that once sufficed now fail to withstand marine pressure, a change anthroclimatology sees as a shift in the “ecological contract” between humans and their environment.
In Juru Seberang, flooding in Gusong Bugis illustrates how the loss of mangroves increases coastal vulnerability. Mangroves are not only sediment buffers or habitats but, in anthroclimatology, part of the cultural ecology of coastal communities. When mangroves disappear due to shifting economic values of land, the ecological relationship between humans and natural buffers is disrupted. Without mangroves, settlements face the full force of waves amplified by perigee, a dangerous intersection of socio-ecological change and astronomical dynamics. Historically, Tanjungpandan communities viewed tidal flooding as an acceptable cycle. Today, climate change pushes this rhythm into more extreme territory. Rising sea levels, slow yet certain, transform perigee tides that once merely wetted edges into events that enter homes. Anthroclimatology interprets this shift as a change in the community’s ecological tolerance boundary, where what was once a seasonal inconvenience has become a threat to sustainable living.
The perigee phase exposes the imbalance between modern “construction” and the character of the sea. High waves during this period demonstrate that urban spaces not designed around tidal dynamics will always be overcome by nature. Anthroclimatology teaches that resilience is not only about strong infrastructure but infrastructure aligned with the ecological character of a place. Low-rise buildings in tidal zones are culturally accepted yet climatologically fragile. Kampong Amau shows how climate change turns social spaces into new arenas of negotiation. Each time the tide rises, residents adapt collectively, moving valuables to higher places, adding wooden boards to doors, repairing drains through communal labor. These practices constitute forms of social ordering that strengthen community bonds, a phenomenon anthroclimatology calls climate bonding, a type of social resilience born from shared threat.
But social adaptation alone is not enough. The increasing force of perigee and west monsoon pressures communities to confront a new reality; living spaces that are no longer stable. Anthroclimatology views this as ecological transformation, where communities realize the need to reconfigure their relationship with the sea. Analysis of Tanjungpandan’s tidal flooding shows that climatology cannot stand on its own. Flooding does not increase solely due to perigee and monsoon dynamics but also because of urban expansion, mangrove loss, changing housing patterns, and rising socio-economic pressures. Anthroclimatology views these factors as a “network of vulnerabilities,” not isolated variables. In other words, tidal flooding is the result of an increasingly imbalanced negotiation between nature and humans.
Within this dynamic, mangroves re-emerge as crucial ecological actors. Mangrove rehabilitation is not merely environmental restoration but the recovery of spiritual and ecological relationships between coastal communities and their land. Many elders in Tanjungpandan recount that past floods were never as severe because mangrove forests were still dense. Restoring mangroves means restoring ecological memory long lost. Anthroclimatology also offers a broader perspective: Tanjungpandan becomes an important case study of how small communities confront global-scale shifts. A once purely astronomical phase of perigee has become a social phenomenon. Waves that once signaled seasonal transition now indicate structural vulnerability. This small town demonstrates that climate change always infiltrates daily life.
Ultimately, tidal flooding in Tanjungpandan is not merely a hydrometeorological disaster but a socio-ecological event shaping a new coastal identity. By understanding this phenomenon through anthroclimatology, we see that the best solutions are not just physical constructions but the reconstruction of the relationship between humans and their dwelling spaces. Successful adaptation harmonizes cultural memory, social needs, and climate dynamics. And as the perigee phase returns year after year, the people of Tanjungpandan will always face the same profound question: how do they wish to live with the sea? The answer cannot be found in technology alone, but in the community’s ability to understand, care for, and reconfigure their coastal environment as a dynamic eco-cultural space. In this sense, anthroclimatology offers a new lens: humans and climate have never stood apart, they have always shaped each other through the long arc of Earth’s history and human civilization.
Corresponding Author: Arry Aditsya Yoga | Researcher in International Law, Ecopolitology, and Anthropology.